Survivor Bias

I’ve been so busy lately I haven’t had a chance to write anything.

Of course part of the problem isn’t having ideas to write about, but time to write about them.

I think perhaps I should focus more on writing SOMETHING, even if it’s just a short post, than trying to write the Great American Blog post.

In this case I’m going to actually post a link to a great article on survivorship bias.  This is the sort of article I wish I had written myself.  As I’ve mentioned part of my point here is to get one to think about HOW we think.

The story of the bomber survivors was first related to be by a good friend in college, but without a source. Now at least I have a source for it.

In a similar vein, and the article touches upon it, people will talk about how great the older homes in weather prone areas were built because they’re standing decades after they’re built despite hurricanes or floods or blizzards. These folks completely miss the other 90% of homes from those eras that didn’t survive.

Years ago, my father bought and rehabilitated what we believe to have been the oldest house in town (in fact technically it was older than the town and probably where the town charter was signed.)

There really wasn’t anything about the construction that stood out that made it survive. Just luck at this point.  A single fire at any point in time could have made the second oldest house in town the oldest.

In closing, this article doesn’t represent most of my thoughts over the past 6 months only the ones that survived to the publishing stage.

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